Multi-decadal offshore wind power variability can be mitigated through optimized European allocation

Abstract. Wind power is a vital ingredient for energy system transformation in line with the Paris Agreement. Limited land availability onshore wind parks and higher speeds over sea make offshore increasingly attractive. While variability on different timescales poses challenges planning integration, little focus has been given to multi-decadal variability. Our research therefore focuses characteristics of exceeding ten years. Based detrended data from coupled centennial reanalysis CERA-20C, we calculate European long-term potential analyze its focusing three locations distinct climatic conditions: German North Sea, Greek Mediterranean Portuguese Atlantic coast. We find strong indications two significant modes that are identified consistently using independent spectral analysis methods 20-year running mean time series. In winter, evolution Oscillation (NAO) directly linked Germany Portugal. Sea positively correlated NAO (r=0.82), coast generation anti-correlated (r=-0.91). evaluate corresponding spatial balancing Europe report substantial benefits cooperation. particular, optimized allocations off allow reduce variance by factor 3–10 compared country-level approaches.